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Top Economists Paint Guarded Outlook at Record-Breaking Conexpo-Con/Agg Event

Mar 1, 2008 12:00 PM

Breaking records for attendance, exhibit space, number of exhibiting companies and total education seminars, ConExpo-Con/Agg 2008 and the co-located IFPE 2008 brought members of the construction, construction materials and power transmission industries together for the once-every-three-years event at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Nearly 145,000 industry professionals from around the world attended the March 11-15 event. Covering more than 2.28 million sq. ft. of exhibit space (21% more than the 2005 show) and representing nearly 2,200 exhibitors, ConExpo-Con/Agg hosted attendees from about 130 non-U.S. countries. The seminar program featured 130 sessions and expanded this year to include a special offering on best practices for small fleet management. The shows will return to Las Vegas March 22-26, 2011.

The record-breaking ConExpo-Con/Agg attendance seemed to run counter with forecasts delivered jointly on the show's opening day by two of the construction industry's premier economists. Citing weak GDP, rising inflation, slim job growth, and a desperate housing outlook, Associated General Contractors of America Chief Economist Ken Simonson anticipates total construction spending will see a 2% to 6% drop in 2008, but noted certain nonresidential construction areas would continue to be strong this year and fuel 4% to 8% growth for the overall market segment. Home building, on the other hand, is pacing a 15% to 20% drop before it sees a turnaround as early as the end of 2008. Simonson adds that materials, fuel and labor costs will continue to rise, potentially aggravating the construction slowdown.

Portland Cement Association counterpart Ed Sullivan does not expect to see any hint of turnaround until well into 2009, and perhaps not until 2010. He cites rising debt and credit problems as primary sticking points for the residential market's comeback, but also believes 2008 nonresidential building activity will suffer due to a shake up in “business confidence.” Sullivan forecasts total construction spending will decline nearly 12% during 2008, based on a three-quarter recession. Housing starts are expected to decline 26.5% from depressed 2007 levels. Weakening economic conditions are expected to result in a 7.1% decline in nonresidential construction during 2008, compared to robust 2007 levels. Finally, PCA's pessimistic construction outlook reflects a significant moderation in public construction activity during 2008. (For a more detailed look at AGC and PCA's revised forecasts, please see related article, pages 17-21.)



 





 
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