Portland Cement Association economic research issued a report outlining the possible impact of war on the U.S. economy and construction markets. The report identifies two scenarios: 1) a quick and clean war with few downstream issues; and 2) a lengthy campaign with significant casualties and multiple downstream issues.

A quick and clean war would accelerate an economic recovery for the United States, but would not necessarily translate into an immediate increase in construction activity. In a domino reaction to a swift and smooth campaign against the Iraqi regime, consumer sentiment would improve, raising consumer spending, translating to increased manufacturing, therefore increasing investment spending and ultimately improving construction activity as a whole.

On the other hand, PCA Chief Economist Edward Sullivan suggests a lengthy campaign with unacceptable casualties will produce a recession. With few federal policy tools left, a simple impetus for recovery would be difficult and the economy would likely take at least one year to return to the crossroads of recovery the country is at today.