The September U.S. edition of PCA's monthly analysis of trends in the construction and cement industries The Monitor maintains a turning point in the U.S. labor market this fall. According to PCA's summer projections, the labor market was expected to stop shedding jobs by October and slowly begin adding jobs in the subsequent months (30,000 in November and 60,000 in December).

PCA also believes that overall economic growth in imminent based on an emerging pattern in construction employment. With the exception of a decline in February, month-to-month gains in construction jobs have been observed every subsequent month throughout 2003. Through August, construction employment is running 0.4% above last year.

Key statistics from the September edition of The Monitor include:

• Portland cement consumption improved 3.3% in June; year-to-date consumption is down 1.0%.

• Blended cement consumption declined 26.1% in June and is down 19% against year-ago levels.

• Masonry cement consumption increased 13.6% in June against last year's level; year-to-date consumption is up 1.7%.

• Cement and clinker imports increased nearly 30% in May; year-to-date imports are now only 5.2% weaker than last year's levels.

The October Canadian edition of The Monitor reports a 13% year-to-date increase in nonresidential construction, suggesting staying power and near-term growth. Overall, permitting for industrial, commercial, and governmental construction projects has demonstrated resilience throughout 2003.

The bullish summer for cement consumption had led PCA to boost its 2003 estimate for Canadian cement consumption to 8.9 million metric tons, reflecting a gain of 5.2% over 2002 levels. The lower than expected mortgage rate environment had added fuel to 2003 housing starts.

During 2004, the strengthening of the export sector, manufacturing, and the economy as a whole, are expected to be offset by modest weaknesses in residential and energy-related construction activity. Key statistics from the October Canadian edition of The Monitor include:

• Portland cement consumption increased 5.2% in August; year-to-date consumption is up 5.0%

• Masonry cement consumption increased 3.0% in August against last year's level; year-to-date consumption is up 4.3%.

• Portland cement exports for August fell 1.8%; year-to-date exports are up 2.3%.

• Masonry cement exports jumped 70% in August; year-to-date exports are up 82.0%.