After advancing by 18.4 million metric tons (or 21%) between 1998 and 2001, and then declining 4 million mt (9%) to 102 million mt in 2003, the volume of cement and clinker traded internationally by sea has potential for further expansion, based on a number of contributory factors. this is one of the conclusions of the new report on the cement sector published by the UK-based independent research company Ocean Shipping Consultants Ltd.

The 175-page reported, entitled World Cement to 2015: Analysis of Production, Consumption & Trade for Individual Countries, examines the cement demand/supply profile of each country, analyzing the trends in consumption and production, and assessing the potential for future exports and imports. With additional analysis of shipping market development, the study also includes detailed appraisals of cement and clinker imports and exports. Among the findings are:

• World production and consumption of cement approximated approximately 1.758 billion mt in 2003, representing an increase of about 2.0% (or 34 million mt) on the previous year, and a continuation of the annual underlying expansion which has seen year-on-year growth in almost every year since 1975.

• The 1995-2003 period witnessed a global expansion of 333 million mt, with this aggregate including 158 million mt from East Asia alone, and 59 million mt from other Asian countries. Other regional expansion includes 15 million mt for Central and South America, 39 million mt for Africa and the Middle East, 35 million mt for Europe, and 27 million mt for North America.

• East Asia now accounts for about 45% of all world cement demand, against less than 31% in 1990.

• The trade volume aggregate declined by a little more than 1.3% in 2003 to 126.5 million mt. Within this trade aggregate, the seaborne trade level represents about 81% of all cement traded.

• Since 2001, the main developments within in the cement trade structure have been some import expansion in Europe, small-scale import decline in Asia, and large-scale import decline in North America.

• The global cement consumption profile is one of positive development throughout the study period, taking the annual volume up from 2003's 1.758 billion mt to around 2.109 billion mt by 2010, and 2.347 billion mt by 2015. This represents overall forward expansion of 33.5%.

The price for the OSC study is US$1,150 for printed or electronic versions. To order, contact:

Study Sales Dept., OSC
Ocean House, 60 Gulidford Street
Chertsey, Surrey KT16 9BE, England
telephone: (0) 1932 560332
fax: (0) 1932 567084
web: www.OSClimited.com
e-mail: info@OSClimited.com