With three direct hurricane hits (Charley, Frances, and Jeanne) and one that several y impacted the state (Ivan) still fresh in Floridians minds, the Portland Cement Association (PCA) issued a Flash Report estimating the impact these weather events would have on Florida's cement industry. The report pays particular attention to the impact of Charley at a time when Florida is experiencing cement shortage conditions.

According to a survey of Florida powder suppliers, no significant plant damage or import terminal operations were reported. Aside from some minor disruptions, supply of cement to the market was largely unaffected by Hurricane Charley.

According to the report, cement consumption typically goes through a two-stage process after a Category 4 hurricane. First, consumption is immediately depressed, primarily due to cleanup. In the second stage, consumption accelerates above trend levels to make up for lost time and meet demand associated with repairs.

PCA expects cement consumption will be depressed by roughly 250,000 to 300,000 tons in hurricane-affected areas during the cleanup period from mid-August through mid-November. According to PCA estimates, Charley-affected areas account for roughly 25% of Florida's total cement consumption. Obviously, the addition impact that Frances will have on top of this depression cannot be predicted as yet. But this initial softening should enable cement producers to increase supply to areas in the Florida market not affect by the hurricane.

During the second phase, roughly 350,000 to 450,000 tons are estimated to be recaptured during the recovery period stretching from mid-November through mid-February. The inventory buildup generated during the cleanup period will be drawn down to pre-hurricane levels. The ability of cement suppliers to fully recapture lost cement tonnage in hurricane-affected areas will depend largely on supply.

The free PCA report can be found at: http://www.cement.org/Flash-Hurricane-2004f.pdf