FMI's newly released Construction Outlook — First Quarter 2002 Report examines the current residential, nonresidential, and nonbuilding structure sectors of the construction industry and provides a five-year look into the future.

Noting that the U.S. economy contracted at a precipitous rate unequalled in more than a decade, construction economist Timothy Aylor reports that the gross domestic product declined by 1.1% in the third quarter, adding that earnings during this period for the 900 companies on Business Week's Corporate Scoreboard declined 55 percent from 2000, with margins cut in half. He alleges that these developments did not begin on Sept. 11.; the recession began in March 2001. Given that recession within the U.S. economy has been deeper and longer than most realize, recovery may come about sooner than many anticipate.

Accordingly, the report claims that Fall 2001 construction activity has been stronger than expected: in fact, 2001 construction value put in place may well exceed analyst's projections, effectively reducing 2002 totals by having included some construction activity slated for Spring 2002. Though interest rates may negatively affect residential construction in 2002, Aylor notes, nonresidential construction will likely pick up in 2003, following the FIFO principal — “First Sector In, First Sector Out.” Overall, the report predicts a “challenging but prosperous 2002” for the construction industry.

Information concerning the Construction Outlook — First Quarter 2002 Report can be obtained by contacting Tim Aylor at (+1) 785-9267; or e-mail: taylor@fminet.com. To request a copy or to obtain permission to reprint any information contained in the publication, please contact Chad Maynor at (+1) 919-785-9326; or e-mail: cmaynor@fminet.com; or web: www.fminet.com.