With the industry on track for a peak-to-trough cement consumption decline of 45 million metric tons (mt) in 2007 (-10%), 2008 (-15%) and 2009 (trending -17%) figures — the worst in U.S. history — 2010 shipments are expected to hit 83 million mt, reflecting a stabilizing economy and employment uptick. According to Portland Cement Association Chief Economist Ed Sullivan's revised forecast, stimulus program-related spending and a better overall economy in the back half of 2009 will see cement consumption and concrete output negatives concentrated during the first half. Still, this year's projected 17% drop is far more severe than the 8.6% decrease Sullivan originally forecast in February 2009 amid the stimulus package passage. On the plus side, Sullivan's latest 2010 market expectations (cement consumption up 7%) surpass the 5.3% growth he anticipated earlier this year.

In addition, Sullivan expects housing starts to stabilize in the second half of 2010, although nonresidential construction, which he expects to drop more than 27% in 2009, will continue to decline next year. “Weakness in near-term cement consumption will stem largely from declines in the private sector in residential and nonresidential construction,” he said. “By the second half of 2010, stimulus spending should enter a phase that includes more traditional infrastructure projects that carry higher cement intensities.”

The potential for a cement consumption spike in 2011 could be amplified by timely enactment of a new surface transportation law to succeed SAFETEA, which sunsets Sept. 30, 2009. With the Obama administration's stated commitment to infrastructure improvement, and likelihood that unemployment remains high, a large increase in federal road and transit spending is expected, potentially boosting 2011 cement consumption to 97 million mt. “Unemployment is expected to peak during the first quarter of 2010 to levels in excess of 10%,” Sullivan affirms. “This will lead to public sentiment for additional stimulus and more traditional, job-generating infrastructure spending. This suggests a significant increase in funding for the next transportation bill, possibly 40%.”

HOLCIM REBRANDS ST. LAWRENCE

St. Lawrence Cement, a construction materials mainstay in Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S. markets, is now Holcim (Canada) Inc. The change covers plants and distribution facilities in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, while a Holcim imprint applies to the Dufferin and Demix ready mixed, aggregate and construction services brands in the Toronto and Montreal markets, respectively.

The Holcim (Canada) transition occurs nearly two years after Swiss parent Holcim Group consolidated ownership of St. Lawrence Cement, and 56 years after (pre-Holcim) Holderbank staked claim to the Quebec market with construction of a cement plant on the St. Lawrence River. Through capital investment and strategic acquisitions, St. Lawrence Cement grew into one of Canada's largest vertically integrated building materials and construction companies, with current payroll of about 3,500 and annual sales near $1.3 billion.

The ownership move and rebranding mirror Holcim Group's strategy with Holnam and Apasco, U.S. and Mexico businesses now operating as Holcim (US) Inc. and Holcim Apasco.

Announcing the change to staff, Holcim (Canada) CEO Paul Ostrander noted, “Holcim is a leading global brand in building materials, recognized for long-term financial performance and leadership in environment, corporate social responsibility and sustainable construction. This change is an important opportunity to implement a new strategy to build awareness for our brand and what it stands for as well as to align the look and feel of our aggregates, ready-mix concrete and construction businesses with our corporate brand to better demonstrate the strength and scope of our company.”

CEMENT TOTALS
FEBRUARY 2009

Total shipments of portland and blended cement in the United States and Puerto Rico were about 4.6 million mt in February 2009, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. This was almost 27% lower compared with shipments for February 2008. Year-to-date 2009 shipments were 9.0 million mt, down almost 29% from the same period in 2008.

Clinker production totaled 4.4 million mt in February 2009, about 18% lower compared with 2008. Year-to-date production was nearly 9.0 million mt, down about 23% compared to the same period in 2009.

Masonry cement shipments of about 155,000 mt in February 2009 were 30% lower compared with shipments in February 2008. Year-to-date shipments totaled 299,000 mt, down almost 36%.