The U.S. recession, weak energy prices, and high consumer debt will lead to double-digit declines in Canadian construction spending and cement consumption this year, according PCA’s Canadian forecast. With a weakening residential sector coupled with nonresidential construction that has been hurt by tight credit and a pullback in demand, PCA expects overall construction spending in Canada to decline by 14.7 percent this year. Cement consumption will decline by 19.7 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2010. There is substantial downside risk in the current outlook.

Overall growth expectations for the Canadian economy have been substantially weakened from the fall outlook. Real GDP growth is forecast to decline 1.3 percent this year. With moderate growth in the U.S. beginning to develop in 2010, coupled with an attendant but moderate rise in energy prices and consumer spending, Canadian output is expected to increase by a subdued 1.6 percent in 2010.